CalculatedTakes Team

Republicans 2028: After Trump

Donald Trump is 82 in 2028. The last Republican president with similar ability to control the party and set its agenda was Ronald Reagan. Vance and Rubio are possible candidates for 2028, but neither has Trump’s charisma. Both will need a more stable and “perceived” inclusive Republican platform to win.

Assuming Democrats do well in the 2026 midterm elections, what do Republicans need to do to win in 2028?

Trump’s approval rating is around 35%. Republicans have a committed base. They do not need to win over everyone who disapproves of Trump. They need to attract enough independent and moderate voters to put them over the top.

What do Republican need to do in 2027 and 2028:

  • Continue painting Democrats as lacking Christian values, including highlighting what voters could see as increasingly radical influences.
  • Highlight Democratic tax hikes that drive businesses away, along with efforts to regulate businesses and increase their overhead. It is almost guaranteed that Democrats will push for these as soon as they are elected.
  • Take the win on immigration. Back off on ICE tactics while staying strong on border control. Maintain the victory without continuing to alienate voters.
  • Stop talking about taking over Canada or other countries and stop pushing them around with tariffs. Instead, find ways to bring them into the fold through agreements that offer more balanced trade and exchange.
  • Moderate what is perceived as “weaponizing” the legal system and intimidation. If Republicans do not show a reverence for the Constitution, winning may be impossible.
  • Get a deal with Iran. Restore inspections, address security concerns, and reopen oil transportation routes - or find an alternative. Siding with Russia over Ukraine is not the answer. If an agreement proves impossible, lean into a Republican strength: make the case that Democrats obstructed the effort. Either way, do not let Iran become a problem without a political strategy to deal with it. In general do not start a war you are not certain can be won in 6 months or less.

The goal: consolidate the wins, moderate the excesses, and broaden the appeal. Republicans need to show voters they can deliver results without creating a new crisis every week.

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